Columbus homicide rate increasing...OSU prof imagines ties to CCW

Homicide rate increasing
January 30, 2004
The (OSU) Lantern

Thirty days into January, Columbus has already seen six homicides. At this rate, the city may accumulate even more murders than last year, when it reached 112 - one of the highest murder rates in the last two decades.

"If we look back in the files over the last couple decades, it's just been a rollercoaster," said Sherry Mercurio, spokeswoman for Columbus Division of Police.

The rate peaked in 1991 with 139 homicides, but it's a hard crime to predict, Mercurio said.

"The best predictor of homicides in any year is the rate of the previous year," said Paul Bellair, associate professor of sociology. Bellair has completed research on crime within urban neighborhoods and young adults.

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"The rate tends to be stable over time because causes of crime are structured," Bellair said. "It has a lot to do with society and how we live."

Education levels, poverty rates, drug use and employment levels all are factors in homicide rates, Bellair said.

"I think that's what has happened in Columbus - the unemployment rate is high and so is the homicide rate," Bellair said.

The availablity of guns with the new concealed gun law that passed last week may have a short-term increase in the homicide rate, Bellair said.

"It may allow crimes to escalate temporarily but without any real effect in the long-run," Bellair said.

The new law probably will not affect the homicide rate, said Detective Dana Farbacher of the Columbus Division of Police.

"The criminal background check won't allow those who are likely to commit crimes to carry a gun and those who are already carry them illegally. So it probably won't increase," Farbacher said.

Commentary:
So let's get this straight. If a homicide rate that is already one of the highest in decades (despite any number of gun control laws) goes up again next year, this OSU professor will blame our new concealed carry law.

But if the rate goes down, we have no doubt this same professor will refuse to see a correlation between the law and the reduction.

As for Columbus Police Detective Dana Farbacher's admission that this law is not likely to arm criminals - we are forced to wonder who kept her muzzled during the ten-year debate on this issue in Ohio?