Poll: Ohio voters unhappy with GOP

6:27am Thursday, November 13, 2003

Cleveland Plain Dealer
November 13, 2003

Columbus - Auditor Betty Montgomery leads all other Republicans seeking the nomination for governor, and holds double-digit leads over Democrats who have expressed an interest in the 2006 contest, according to a poll paid for by the Montgomery campaign.

Of Republicans surveyed, 32 percent said they would vote to nominate Montgomery for governor.

Secretary of State Ken Blackwell finished a surprising second with 23 percent, followed by Attorney General Jim Petro with 17 percent.

The Montgomery campaign made no secret of its motives for releasing the data: They hope donors and party leaders will discount an aura of invincibility promoted by Petro.

Although the poll spotlighted Montgomery's strengths, it also exposed potential weaknesses for the Republicans.

After 16 consecutive years of Republican governors, more than half of those surveyed think Ohio is headed in the wrong direction.

Click on the "Read More..." link below for more.

About 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for an unnamed Democrat over an unnamed Republican if the election were held today; 35 percent said they would vote Republican, and the remaining 23 percent were undecided.

Despite Montgomery's strong showing, Cleveland pollster Robert Dykes said it's too early for her to declare victory - particularly in light of the anti-Republican mood.

"She [Montgomery] is certainly well-positioned and well-known," he said, "but you can't make a definitive determination about the 2006 governor's race based on any poll conducted in 2003."

The Blackwell-Montgomery-Petro contest is heating up unusually early.

Petro's staff has accused Montgomery of failing to aggressively pursue money owed the state during her time as attorney general. Montgomery has accused Petro fund-raiser Kyle Sisk of pressuring donors for political contributions.

Blackwell has incurred the wrath of many of his fellow Republicans by launching a campaign to end a 1-cent increase in the state sales tax - six months before it is scheduled to expire.

If Blackwell's plan qualifies for the ballot in 2004, legislators will be forced to choose sides over taxes, and do so in an election year.

Petro declined to comment on the poll.

Blackwell campaign spokesman Norm Cummings said Blackwell's numbers, coupled with his tax-repeal effort, show he is the candidate who is in touch with voters.

"The question is not who's going to win in 2006, but who is going to lead in 2003," Cummings said.

Commentary:
We could have told Betty Montgomery this, without her expensive poll.

Three years in advance of an election, polls are a name-recognition battle. Thus far, more people know Montgomery. But what surprised even her was who was second: J. Kenneth Blackwell, who is gaining state and national attention for his sales tax repeal initiative.

"We thought this would be a Montgomery-Petro race," Montgomery consultant Mark Weaver said. "Blackwell's strong showing surprised us."

Indeed. Montgomery, who has told OFCC PAC's Vice Chairman she is personally against concealed carry legislation, has suddenly started acting like Ken Blackwell, holding press conferences to announce how she has found wasted money in the state's budget. As if that were a difficult thing to do.

Will Ohioans believe her if she flip-flops to Blackwell's stance on the Second Amendment and CCW reform? Or have they learned their lesson about electing liberal Republicans like Bob Taft and George Voinovich?

Will the Bush campaign take notice of what Bob Taft and liberal Republicans are doing to Ohioan's perceptions of the GOP?

Time will tell. But for Bush, there isn't much time. And no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio.

Click here to read the entire story in the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

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