The Second Amendment’s Great Election Night

by David Kopel

The Second Amendment had a great night on Tuesday. Across the nation, the right to arms is stronger than ever, and the stage has been set for constructive reforms in 2011.

U.S. Senate: The net result of Tuesday was a gain of +6 votes on Second Amendment issues.

In not a single U.S. Senate seat did the gun control lobby gain ground. Three open seats switched from anti-gun to pro-gun: Ohio (Rob Portman replacing George Voinovich), West Virginia (Joe Manchin taking the seat of the late Robert Byrd), North Dakota (John Hoeven replacing Byron Dorgan). In Arkansas, John Boozman’s victory over Blanche Lincoln is a significant gain.

Seats with a partial improvement were Indiana (Dan Coats usually-but-not-always good, replacing always-bad Evan Bayh), Wisconsin (NRA A-rated Ron Johnson defeating C-rated Russ Feingold), Pennsylvania (solid Pat Toomey replacing inconsistent Arlen Specter).

If Dino Rossi wins Washington (he currently trails by 14,000, with 62% of the vote in), that will be another important pickup.

There are now enough votes in the Senate to defeat a filibuster on pro-gun bills. Significantly, Harry Reid's victory in Nevada means that pro-gun bills have a chance of being brought to floor, or offered as amendments to other bills. Had Reid been defeated, the Majority Leader would have been Charles Schumer or Richard Durbin, both of whom are highly-motivated and well-informed on the anti-gun side.

....U.S. House: The House already had a strong, bipartisan pro-Second Amendment majority, and that majority has grown even larger. By my calculations, the pro-gun side gained about 18.75 votes on Tuesday. I count an A-rated winner replacing a D or F as +1, replacing a C as +.5, and replacing a B as +.25.

The unpopularity of President Obama’s program caused the defeat of many Democrats in swing districts. In every single case in which an A-rated Democratic incumbent was defeated, he was replaced by an A-rated Republican.

There were only two districts in which gun control advocates improved their position. In New Orleans, C-rated Republican Joseph Cao was unseated by F-rated Cedric Richmond, and in Honolulu Charles Djou (A) was defeated by Colleen Hanabusa (F).

In every other race where the new Representative has a different position than the old one, the result is an improvement for the Second Amendment, with A-rated Republicans defeating or taking open seats from Democrats who had a B, C, D, or F. These districts include: Ariz. 5; Ark. 2; Fla. 2, 8, 22, 24; Ida. 1; Ill, 14, 17; Kan. 3; Mich. 7; Minn. 8; Nev. 3; N.H. 1; N.J. 3; N.Y. 13, 19; N.C. 2; Ohio 1, 15; Penn. 3, 7, 8; S.C. 5.; and Wash. 3.

Overall, candidates endorsed by the NRA Political Victory Fund won 85% of their House races, and 19 of 25 Senate races.

Click here to read the entire story at The New Ledger, which also gives a detailed examination of successes at the state level.